What does the requirement of the Communist Party to recognize "LDNR" mean? Poroshenko's return to Ukraine and the anniversary of Navalny's return to Russia. Ryabkov on the Valdai about "another deception" of the West. The long-standing debate over who is stronger - democracy or dictatorship - is now about Ukraine's fate.
A year ago, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny returned to Russia and was immediately imprisoned formally for a criminal, but in fact 100% political case. He has been sitting since then, and he will sit as long as Putin is in power. This is how modern Russia is arranged.
A year later, the leader of the Ukrainian opposition, Petro Poroshenko, returned to Ukraine and was immediately summoned to court formally for a criminal case, but in fact for a 100% political case. The judge released Poroshenko, and the probability that he will be behind bars is close to zero. This is how modern Ukraine is arranged.
Ukraine is not Russia at all. The Ukrainian president will not be able to become a dictator, even if he really wants to. Even if a parliamentary majority is in his hands.
The historical debate over which is more effective - democracy or dictatorship - has been going on for centuries. In the late 1980s, it seemed to many that the controversy was over, and liberal democracy had finally won. "The End of History", "The Last Man" - and all this from Francis Fukuyama quickly turned out to be a mistake, or, at least, a premature conclusion. Today, 70 or 80 percent of humanity lives in dictatorial, autocratic and other undemocratic states, and a number of undemocratic states, such as Singapore or China, are showing their effectiveness and capacity for rapid development.
Today, Ukraine has become a territory of fierce confrontation between the most aggressive dictatorship on the planet - Putin's Russia - and the entire community of liberal democracies.
There is no chance of Putin winning this confrontation without a direct military invasion, and a military invasion will obviously lead to a great deal of bloodshed in central Europe, unacceptable losses for the Russian army and devastating sanctions for the Russian economy. Russian television continues to feed its flock with tales of the lightning victory of Russian troops, apparently in the grip of sweet memories of its "victories" of 2014-2015. Even such a usually prudent expert as Lieutenant General Buzhynsky, on the air of "60 Minutes" suffered flattering nonsense about the defeat of the Ukrainian army in 3-4 days and the impossibility of resistance of Ukrainians.
There is a clear suspicion that General Buzhynsky is a fool because he cannot help but be aware of the scale of military and military-technical assistance to Ukraine provided by NATO countries. Turkey has already delivered Bayraktar TV2 unmanned aerial vehicles to Ukraine. The United States plans to arm Ukrainians with Stinger portable anti-aircraft missile systems. The United Kingdom is sending a large consignment of disposable NLAW anti-tank grenade launchers to Ukraine. France, Poland, Lithuania, Canada, Estonia, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Romania are already providing military and technical assistance to Ukraine.
Of course, even with the help of NATO countries, the Russian army is still stronger, primarily at the expense of the Air Force, but it will not be an easy victory in a few days. The Russian invasion will face fierce resistance not only from the Ukrainian army but also from the people, and there will be no chance of Putin's final victory in this war. For all its military and repressive power, the Soviet Union needed at least eleven postwar years (1945-1956) to quell Ukrainian resistance. Putin has no chance of repeating this "feat", as his regime is likely to fall in the first year after the invasion, unable to withstand sanctions, complete international isolation and civil protests, including the "deep people", dissatisfied with the flow of 200 cargo "And a sharp decline in living standards.
Among Putin's non-military responses to the US and NATO refusals to sign an act of surrender, the recognition of the "DPR" and the "LPR" was most often mentioned. But in recent days, information has come in that makes this version highly unlikely. The fact is that a "document" has appeared in the State Duma calling on Putin to recognize the terrorist enclaves of Donetsk. But among the authors of this paper was not a single Russian, and all in a row - representatives of the Communist Party. And this most likely means that this initiative has not been agreed upon with the presidential administration, ie it may not go beyond the building on the Willing Row.
Russia and the West are filling the gap in different ways. The foreign ministers of the United States and Germany, Anthony Blinken and Annalena Burbock, used shuttle diplomacy, taking turns meeting with Kuleba and Lavrov.
Last week's main anti-hero, Ryabkov, "collecting manatees", speaking at the Valdai Forum, according to experts, allegedly calmed the nerves of the international community, somewhat upset by Russia's threats of nuclear war. Former Deputy Finance Minister and now opposition analyst Serhiy Aleksashenko even saw Ryabkov's "pigeon motives." Ryabkov, in fact, first assured that Russia would not attack Ukraine, and then issued a hawkish cry that Russia would not tolerate "another deception" of the West in the form of a moratorium on Ukraine's accession to NATO. To save the planet from the Apocalypse, the United States, at Ryabkov's request, must give Russia a "final paper" written in President Biden's blood that Ukraine will never, that is, end in NATO.
Biden rightly remarked that Putin himself did not know what he would do after receiving his proposals in return. In this situation, all kinds of talks with Putin's diplomats make no sense.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has decided to switch to the "Brother 2" language close to Putin and called on Russia to "recognize that power is in the truth."
In the historical battle of democracies and dictatorships, both have their advantages. On the side of dictatorships, the speed of decisions made, the ability to mobilize all resources without being distracted by internal red tape with the opposition.
The main advantage of liberal democracies is the attractiveness of freedom and trust, which are the main attributes and conditions for the existence of this form of state. No wonder it is the turn of those who want to join NATO. There is no queue of people wanting to join the CSTO. And if in Ukraine the whole free world has allies, that is, three dozen countries, Putin has one ally - Lukashenko. And he will certainly betray at the first opportunity.